Tuesday, January 31, 2012

Newt's long march (Politico)

LUTZ, Fla. ? Mitt Romney and much of the GOP establishment may be exultant over Newt Gingrich?s likely defeat here Tuesday, but the former speaker has a message for his detractors: He?s not going anywhere.

Gingrich is making the case that Romney can?t get a majority at the convention, his small circle of advisers are already eyeing favorable states in March and April, and those close to the former back-bench bomb thrower are testifying to his legendary perseverance.

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Florida may well be a painful body blow, but Gingrich appears deadly serious about a long, bloody march all the way to Tampa ? a scenario that is giving the GOP establishment nightmares.

At 68 and already 14 years past his speakership, this is likely Gingrich?s last chance at the political prize that he?s been coveting for at least two decades. He?s not Romney circa 2008 or Tim Pawlenty ? being a good soldier and falling in line in hopes of being rewarded four years hence isn?t an option.

And the new rules in which states will distribute their delegates proportionally instead of by winner-take-all rules means that Gingrich can keep accruing a sizable number of delegates even if Romney is besting him.

Further, Gingrich and his team see a wall of opposition among the party?s conservative activists to Romney and the stirrings of the same movement that upended the GOP establishment in the 2010 election. The diehards in the tea party movement may ultimately get behind Romney as the nominee, but not before exhausting their options.

Previewing his post-Florida message, Gingrich told reporters outside a megachurch here Sunday that he would seek to carry the Anybody But Mitt banner.

?When you take all the non-Romney votes, it?s very likely that at the convention there will be a non-Romney majority and maybe a very substantial one,? he said. ?My job is to convert that into a Gingrich majority.?

Such Tampa talk has key party leaders worried.

Even as they breathe a sigh of relief about Romney?s apparent Florida turnaround, some party establishment types are nonetheless bracing for a protracted and ugly fight between factions that the GOP hasn?t seen for decades.

?I think it could go on quite a while, which would not be to our benefit,? Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.), a Romney backer, said Sunday on NBC?s ?Meet the Press.?

It?s quite possible that, even if they fall short of the nomination, both Gingrich and Ron Paul could go into the convention with enough delegates to enjoy a measure of leverage over speaking roles and party platforms that would at the very least present a distraction.

A convention with a nominee and two empowered losers who won?t fade away quietly would be ?a real pill to swallow,? said one senior Republican.

?I believe multiple candidates are going to have enough delegates that they will expect and require attention at the convention,? the Republican said.

Another GOP veteran said he feared Tampa will resemble Houston in 1992, when Pat Buchanan had already lost to President George H.W. Bush but gave a pugnacious culture-war speech that overshadowed the incumbent?s message.

The topic of the calendar and a complicated convention was on the menu of discussion at a private lunch last week with Republican National Committee Chairman Reince Priebus and a group of past RNC chairmen, according to sources present.

Source: http://us.rd.yahoo.com/dailynews/rss/politics/*http%3A//us.rd.yahoo.com/dailynews/external/politico_rss/rss_politico_mostpop/http___www_politico_com_news_stories0112_72131_html/44351446/SIG=11mfij0ua/*http%3A//www.politico.com/news/stories/0112/72131.html

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